yielddiveAre we heading into a recession? Some data to form your own opinion.
Labor market, employment costs, consumer sentiment, GDP forecasts, inflation, financial conditions, surveys, rate hike cycle, equity outflows
Labor Market
The labor market has performed extremely well since the pandemic. Unemployment rate at a historic record low and the number of job openings has risen sharply.
Rising employment costs
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment is down and an inverting yield curve is rather worrying.
GDP Forecasts
GDP and inflation forecasts are not looking good. Economic slowdown with rising prices...
Russia-Ukraine war is expected to severely impact GDP forecasts for Eastern Europe. Western Europe down to 3.3% from 4%.
Inflation
Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations
Financial Conditions
Global recession gathers pace. Global financial conditioning index skyrockets.
Surveys
Risks to global economic growth according to a survey by McKinsey
Pessimistic outlook on the likelihood of a recession in the near future
Rate Hike Cycle
This time it's different ?
Record tightening cycle ahead of us
FED funds rate probabilities by meeting date
Temporal relationship between rate hike cycles and recession/bear markets
Spreads
Which curve to look at is the question? U.S. 2Yr/10Yr Spread or forecasted 3M yield 18M in the future vs. current 3M Yield
Equity Outflows
Sources:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/05/global-recession-gathers-pace/#comments
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/united-states-recession/
https://think.ing.com/articles/us-how-far-can-the-fed-go