Are we heading into a recession? Some data to form your own opinion.

Labor market, employment costs, consumer sentiment, GDP forecasts, inflation, financial conditions, surveys, rate hike cycle, equity outflows


Labor Market

The labor market has performed extremely well since the pandemic. Unemployment rate at a historic record low and the number of job openings has risen sharply.



Rising employment costs



Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment is down and an inverting yield curve is rather worrying.




GDP Forecasts

GDP and inflation forecasts are not looking good. Economic slowdown with rising prices...


Russia-Ukraine war is expected to severely impact GDP forecasts for Eastern Europe. Western Europe down to 3.3% from 4%.



Inflation

Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations


Financial Conditions

Global recession gathers pace. Global financial conditioning index skyrockets.


Surveys

Risks to global economic growth according to a survey by McKinsey


Pessimistic outlook on the likelihood of a recession in the near future


Rate Hike Cycle

This time it's different ?


Record tightening cycle ahead of us


FED funds rate probabilities by meeting date


Temporal relationship between rate hike cycles and recession/bear markets



Spreads

Which curve to look at is the question? U.S. 2Yr/10Yr Spread or forecasted 3M yield 18M in the future vs. current 3M Yield


Equity Outflows








Sources:

https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2022/0504/Task-for-Fed-officials-Thread-a-needle-on-inflation-recession

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/05/global-recession-gathers-pace/#comments

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal/gloomy-days-ahead

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/united-states-recession/

https://www.globaldata.com/media/business-fundamentals/globaldata-expects-russia-ukraine-war-impact-europes-post-pandemic-economic-growth-2022/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-high-can-the-fed-hike-interest-rates-before-a-recession-hits-this-chart-suggests-a-low-threshold-11651608757

https://zububrothers.com/2022/05/03/previewing-the-feds-decision-to-kick-off-a-record-tightening-cycle-right-into-a-recession/

https://www.hamiltonlane.com/en-US/Insight/1c97605c-c75f-45c6-8ec7-f80e79349250/Weekly-Research-Briefing-Houston,-we-have-a-proble

https://think.ing.com/articles/us-how-far-can-the-fed-go





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