Are we heading into a recession? Some data to form your own opinion.

Labor market, employment costs, consumer sentiment, GDP forecasts, inflation, financial conditions, surveys, rate hike cycle, equity outflows

Labor Market

The labor market has performed extremely well since the pandemic. Unemployment rate at a historic record low and the number of job openings has risen sharply.

Rising employment costs

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment is down and an inverting yield curve is rather worrying.

GDP Forecasts

GDP and inflation forecasts are not looking good. Economic slowdown with rising prices...

Russia-Ukraine war is expected to severely impact GDP forecasts for Eastern Europe. Western Europe down to 3.3% from 4%.

Inflation

Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations

Financial Conditions

Global recession gathers pace. Global financial conditioning index skyrockets.

Surveys

Risks to global economic growth according to a survey by McKinsey

Pessimistic outlook on the likelihood of a recession in the near future

Rate Hike Cycle

This time it's different ?

Record tightening cycle ahead of us

FED funds rate probabilities by meeting date

Temporal relationship between rate hike cycles and recession/bear markets

Spreads

Which curve to look at is the question? U.S. 2Yr/10Yr Spread or forecasted 3M yield 18M in the future vs. current 3M Yield

Equity Outflows

Sources:

https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2022/0504/Task-for-Fed-officials-Thread-a-needle-on-inflation-recession

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/05/global-recession-gathers-pace/#comments

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal/gloomy-days-ahead

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/united-states-recession/

https://www.globaldata.com/media/business-fundamentals/globaldata-expects-russia-ukraine-war-impact-europes-post-pandemic-economic-growth-2022/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-high-can-the-fed-hike-interest-rates-before-a-recession-hits-this-chart-suggests-a-low-threshold-11651608757

https://zububrothers.com/2022/05/03/previewing-the-feds-decision-to-kick-off-a-record-tightening-cycle-right-into-a-recession/

https://www.hamiltonlane.com/en-US/Insight/1c97605c-c75f-45c6-8ec7-f80e79349250/Weekly-Research-Briefing-Houston,-we-have-a-proble

https://think.ing.com/articles/us-how-far-can-the-fed-go